The frequency of El Nino events peaked about 1,200 years ago during the
Middle Ages and will probably reach another high in the early part of the 22nd
century.
"El Nino operates within its own kind of 2,000-year rhythm, and because
of that, we believe these periodic changes have had a major impact on global
climate conditions over the past 10,000 years," Christopher Moy of Stanford
University in California said.
El Nino is an abnormal warming of waters in the Pacific that distorts wind
and rainfall patterns around the world. It has been linked to heavy rainfall in
northern Peru and southern Ecuador and heat waves in the northeastern United
States.
While studying at Syracuse University in New York, Moy and his colleagues
discovered the first continuous records of weather events caused by El Nino
going back thousands of years.
By studying sediment from Lake Pallcacocha in southern Ecuador, the
scientists were able to track dramatic changes in weather systems across North
and South America.
"About every 2,000 years, we see a lot of El Nino activity," said
Moy, who reported his finding in the science journal Nature.
"El Nino is an important part of our modern-day climate system.
Likewise, our study shows it was also an important part of the earth's climate
system 7,000 years ago," he added.
The scientists hope that by studying earlier El Nino cycles they can improve
understanding of future climate changes.
Weather experts predict the current mild El Nino, which scientists have
blamed for extending the dry season in parts of Asia, may strengthen this
winter, increasing storms in the southern United States and causing drier
conditions in the Midwest.
But the experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the
United States said it will be weaker than the 1997-1998 El Nino that claimed
thousands of lives and caused billions of dollars of damage worldwide.